The New Year has arrived, 2026 is in full swing, and there’s one huge question on the minds of everyone who works with millwork: What’s going on with the tariff situation?

When the ball dropped on January 1, 2026, the New Year was supposed to trigger an increase in tariffs on wood cabinetry—the current rate of 25% was scheduled to increase to 50%. Instead, U.S. administration officials postponed that increase for one year, in order to allow all parties to continue working on trade negotiations.

To complicate things further, the U.S. suggested the possibility of even more tariffs in an effort to gain leverage over the proposed Greenland acquisition. Those additional tariff increases would mean a cost increase across the board for imported goods, including the aforementioned millwork.

However, there’s another side to this question: Many U.S.-based family-owned and generational millwork firms would actually WELCOME the higher tariff increase to 50%, because they say bad actors such as China are abusing shipping and labeling loopholes to flood the U.S. market with cheap imported goods well below regular market value. When pricing wars break out, countries with lower overhead costs—or those that bend the rules to get around international shipping regulations—gain a competitive edge against countries that follow the rules. America is taking a protectionist approach to its tariffs on cabinets and other wooden products, claiming its national security is threatened by this trade imbalance.

What does this all mean for the current state of the millwork market? The NFI Northstar scoured the ‘Net for the impactful info you need to know as we roll into 2026.

7 things to know about the U.S. millwork market & tariffs:
(with links to original sources)

1. The U.S. cabinet industry supports 250,000 jobs, with 95 percent of the firms being family-owned companies.

2. However, U.S. cabinet makers have lost 20% of the domestic market over the past decade, as China, Mexico, and countries in Southeast Asia have flooded the American market with cheap imports below market value.

3. The market share value of imported cabinets in the U.S. surged to almost $3.7 billion dollars in 2024, double the amount from a decade prior.

4. The U.S. is the largest importer of cabinets. The current tariff rate of 25% (and possible increase) aims to cut the trade deficit and help grow domestic market share. However, the tariffs are also impacting pricing and selection of available goods.

5. These tariffs on bad faith importers are also harming long-term allies such as Canada, who is shouldering the same import rate as China, Mexico and others, which severely threatens its $4.5 billion cabinet industry.

6. Besides increasing costs on current projects, the whiplash tariff announcements create confusion and uncertainty within the industry’s supply chain, which can lead to longer wait times, less choice in products, and unpredictable cost increases.

7. Despite higher mortgage rates and a downturn in the sales market, remodels, refurbishes, and retrofits are expected to remain at a steady rate through 2026.

That’s it for this edition of The NFI Northstar. Thanks for reading! We’ll be back next month with more helpful industry news.

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